Why the hard-right Herbert Kickl is unlikely to be Austria’s next chancellor

USUALLY, COMING top in a general election would make you a popular person in your capital. But Vienna was different this week. Despite Herbert Kickl’s win by a solid margin, with 29% of the votes on September 29th, no other political party wants to run the country with him and his hard-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). The governing centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP) came second with 26%, and is trying to avoid exactly that.

Coalition talks will take weeks, if not months, but their likeliest outcome is a coalition of the ÖVP with the Social Democrats (SPÖ), who got 20% of the vote, and the liberal NEOS, with 9%. The two would together have just enough to form a “grand coalition”, because around 6% of the votes went to parties such as the Beer Party and the Communist Party that did not reach the threshold of 4% needed to enter parliament (see chart). Yet a majority of just one vote in parliament is likely to be deemed too fragile by both Karl Nehammer, the ÖVP’s incumbent chancellor, and Andreas Babler, the leader of the SPÖ.

“The ÖVP decides the next government,” says Kathrin Stainer-Hämmerle of the Technical College in Kärnten. Other than forming a three-way coalition, it could indeed form a government with the FPÖ. But Mr Nehammer has vowed not to join any government with Mr Kickl in it (he has left open the option of forming a government with the FPÖ but without its leader). Moreover, Alexander van der Bellen, the Austrian president, strongly prefers a three-way coalition without the FPÖ, as do the employers’ association and the unions. After the election Mr van der Bellen emphasised that the next Austrian government must protect human rights, support Austria’s membership of the European Union and respect the media’s independence. Critics of the FPÖ say the party falls short on all three counts.

Unlike in neighbouring Germany, where the chancellor is elected by parliament, Austria’s president names the country’s chancellor. Although the president is not constitutionally obliged to nominate the leader of the party that got the most votes, that is usually the case. Mr van der Bellen, who hails from the Green Party, has a visceral dislike of Mr Kickl and has said in the past that he might indeed not nominate him if he won.

Mr Kickl has declared that his role model is Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader who has turned his country into a quasi-autocracy since coming to power in 2010. Mr Kickl is likewise anti-immigration, anti-Islam and strongly Eurosceptic, and refuses to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. His electoral programme, “Fortress Austria”, calls for ending political asylum entirely, which would breach EU rules.

But the People’s Party and the Social Democrats are also uneasy bedfellows. The former moved to the right under Sebastian Kurz, Mr Nehammer’s predecessor, while the latter has moved to the left under Mr Babler, whom Mr Kickl has called “a lazy, unpalatable Marxist”. (Mr Kickl has also called Mr van der Bellen “a little bit senile” and his political opponents a “swingers’ club”). On economic policy, for example, the ÖVP is closer to the FPÖ than to the SPÖ. Some parts of the SPÖ’s programme, such as the introduction of a 32-hour work week or an inheritance tax, are unacceptable to the ÖVP. If the SPÖ drops these demands, the ÖVP will need to agree to other SPÖ policies, such as reform of the education system.

Expect weeks of tortuous talks. Vorarlberg is holding a state election on October 13th and Styria votes on November 24th. The FPÖ might come first in both, which will further bolster its power in state parliaments. The party is already also part of the state governments of Upper Austria, Lower Austria and Salzburg.

A draft coalition agreement is expected by early December, followed by fine-tuning over the holidays. Mr van der Bellen will probably name the new chancellor at the start of the year. Mr Nehammer will run the country until then, and probably for longer at the head of a three-party coalition. But if that three-way team performs as poorly as the one in next-door Germany, it will play into Mr Kickl’s hands. Although the wiry Carinthian is unlikely to be the next chancellor, that does not mean he will never get his dream job. ■

Correction (September 29th): This article originally misidentified the FPÖ politician who called for Mr Nehammer’s resignation.

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