Tories facing ‘punishment election’ and vote betting allegations making it worse, says former minister – live

Labour has announced it will aim to deliver major transport projects 25% faster and 20% cheaper than current levels if it wins the election, PA Media reports. PA says:

The targets are based on the expected findings of a review into rail and urban transport infrastructure commissioned by the party and led by former Siemens UK boss Juergen Maier.

Labour said it will “apply industry-leading best practice to major transport projects from the start”, and publish a “long-term strategy for transport”.

The party accused the Conservatives of having a “broken approach to infrastructure”, claiming delays to large schemes have reached “unsustainable levels” which are “costing the taxpayer dearly”.

It cited examples such as planning costs for the Lower Thames Crossing – a proposed new road tunnel between Essex and Kent – reaching “an eyewatering £800m”, and the decision to scrap HS2 north of Birmingham.

Shadow transport secretary Lousie Haigh and Maier will visit Manchester Airport on Friday to discuss options for improving rail connectivity across the North of England.

Haigh said: “Levelling up has been an absolute sham under the Conservatives – and nowhere is this more apparent than the woeful state of our transport infrastructure.

“Labour is committed to tackling this from day one. We will turn the page on years of Tory waste, chaos and broken promises. Improving rail connectivity and capacity across the North is an absolute priority for Labour – and we will deliver value for the taxpayer while turbocharging delivery of transport projects.”

Maier said: “The North of England has borne the brunt of a series of broken promises on transport infrastructure and our economy is suffering as a result.

“It has been 10 years since a new rail line across the Pennines was promised and we’re still waiting for construction to get underway. The uncertainty created by chronically over-promising and underdelivering is lethal for investor and passenger confidence.”

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Helen Sullivan.

Paul Scully, the former Tory minister who is standing down at the election, has delivered a good assessment of why the election date betting allegations are so damaging for his party. As the Telegraph reports, Scully told GB News that this was “a punishment election” – and that the allegations just give voters a further reason to punish his party. He said:

It feels like we’re shooting ourselves in the foot and we’re not millipedes. We’ve only got two feet.

There’s only so much capacity. When you have got effectively what is a punishment election, when you’ve got people that are wanting to punish the Conservatives and so they’re going to be looking under the microscope at absolutely everything that we do, and then we’re making it easy for them to punish us even further on that basis.

Scully also said since the election was called things seemed to to have gone from “bad to worse” for the party.

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More detail now on those retail sales figures.

Spending in shops and online bounced back strongly last month as better weather, falling inflation and rising consumer confidence boosted spending.

The monthly update from the Office for National Statistics showed the volume of retail sales rose by 2.9% in May, following a weather-affected drop of 1.8% in April.

The ONS said most retailers had a better month in May, with marked increases in the clothing and footwear and household goods sectors. Clothing sales rose by 5.4% as retailers managed to shift summer stock.

The official data followed the release of the latest snapshot of consumer confidence from GfK showing sentiment standing at its highest level in two and a half years.

Over the three months to May – a better guide to the underlying trend in spending – retail sales rose by 1%. Even so, they remained 0.5% below the level immediately before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in February 2020.

Retail sales account for less than half of total consumer spending and exclude categories such as car sales, eating out and hotel stays.

In economy news: the government borrowed less money than predicted in May but saw debt lift to levels not witnessed for more than 60 years, according to official figures, PA reports:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that public sector net borrowing hit £15bn for the month. It comes amid significant scrutiny on the state finances with only two weeks until the General Election.

Initial data found public sector borrowing – the difference between Government spending and income - was £0.8bn higher than the same month a year earlier. It was also the third highest May since monthly records began in 1993.

Nevertheless, this was £0.6bn below forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Government’s official forecaster, and was also less than economists had predicted.

The ONS also found that public sector net debt as a proportion to UK GDP (gross domestic product) rose to 99.8% - the highest level since March 1961.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promised to reduce debt as one his five pledges at the start of 2023.

Welsh Secretary David TC Davies has appeared on the Today programme, where he was asked if he was worried about the reputation of the Tory Party on questions of ethics and integrity, in light of the allegations about betting on the timing of the General Election.

Well, of course I am.

I took a decision when I entered the Wales Office as Secretary of State that I’d do two things immediately to set an example. The first was to get rid of the ministerial car, so I’ve been happily travelling around on the Tube ever since, which I don’t think is appropriate for all Cabinet ministers, by the way, because some of them have more security issues than I do.

The second thing I did was to look round, notice there was alcohol in the building and ask for it all to be removed within 48 hours, for there to be no alcohol to be served at any official Wales Office events at all, and for nobody - including and of course especially myself - to be drinking alcohol at any official functions at any time of the day or night.”

When Rishi Sunak, Britain’s Conservative prime minister, called a snap election in the pouring rain last month, he would have hoped his party would have closed at least some of the 20-point deficit in the opinion polls.

Instead, it seems the only members of his party who have profited since are some of his Downing street aides – in a political betting scandal that has swiftly reinforced prevailing anti-Conservative stereotypes in the British public’s imagination.

Political scandals in Britain do not have to involve large sums of money, but they linger in the public imagination if they feel politicians have been acting with impunity. Fifteen years ago, dozens of MPs were forced out after an expenses scandal. One Conservative quit after asking taxpayers to pay £1,645 for an ornamental duck house.

More pertinently, Sunak’s predecessor as prime minister but one, Boris Johnson, was forced out of office two years ago over another scandal: the “Partygate” affair.

Johnson, aides and advisers, it emerged, had held a string of parties and drinks events in Downing Street during the coronavirus crisis, at times when the British public were forced to remain at home, unable even to visit sick or dying relatives.

Licenses that have already been approved for fossil fuel projects will be carried on, Rayner says, when asked about the Rosebank oilfield, and whether yesterday’s supreme court ruling on Surrey council will have any bearing on the controversial development.

Husain is pressing her on the ruling from the supreme court that Surrey council should have considered the climate change impacts of new oil wells.

Rayner won’t be drawn on the implications of the ruling.

But, asked if Labour would have to reapprove the licence for the Rosebank development, she says:

Licences that have already been approved will carry on.

If there’s a decision to be made at the time, then that will come to that secretary of state to make that decision.

But what we are very clear on is that we can’t rely on it into the future, we have to have a just transition into renewables and Labour is the only party that has a credible plan on how we get there and meet our net zero targets.

Here is some context:

Mishal Husain says that studies show delivering the needed extra staff would require billions of pounds a year.

Angela Rayner again says that money will be saved by delivering the right level of care in the right place. She is referring to Labour’s plan to use NHS money to buy beds in care homes:

Mishal Husain says that the topup to annual NHS spending in your manifesto was primarily not for staff. How will Labour deliver a workforce plan?

Angela Rayner responds by saying that what is needed is reform, rather than funding. The workforce doesn’t feel valued, she says, and that is what needs to change.

Husain presses her on the cost of delivering a workforce plan, and Rayner is evasive.

Husain asks if she is saying it is cost neutral.

Rayner: I actually think by having that workforce plan… we could save money. If staff are retained, and agency fees are avoided, money could be saved, she says.

UPDATE: Rayner said:

I actually think by having that workforce plan, and I’ve worked in the social care sector before, and I represented Unison members who worked in our NHS for years as a convenor as well, I actually think we could save money if we could do those reforms.

If we could value the staff, if we can retain the staff so we’re not paying huge agency fees, I actually think we could save money, never mind coming in cost neutral.

I think it’s a scandal that we’re spending so much money on agency fees and keeping people on trolleys in A&E because we don’t have the right support for people at the right time when they need it.

The BBC’s Mishal Husain is about to interview deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner on the Today programme. We’ll bring you the highlights live.

The Liberal Democrats have announced a dental rescue plan for the NHS, worth £750 million each year, which aims to give more patients access to care, ensure free check-ups for children and to prevent the “exodus” of NHS dentists.

It said that this would increase NHS dentistry funding in England by around a quarter.
The plan also aims to ensure access to an NHS dentist for everyone needing urgent and emergency care.

And the Liberal Democrats said that the money would be used to help to reform the NHS dental contract, which has been a subject of contention among dentists.

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey:

Across the country, millions of people are going without basic dental care, with many even turning to pulling their own teeth out due to the lack of services. It is an utterly appalling situation that has to be brought to an end.

The Conservative government has pushed dentistry to the brink and it is children and parents who are paying the price of their neglect.
“Years of this Conservative government kicking the can down the road is creating an exodus of dentists from the NHS.

The Liberal Democrats have an ambitious plan to fix the dental contract and tackle the crisis in dental care. Every vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote to get rid of this appalling Conservative government and fix the NHS and care.

Starmer will be campaigning in Scotland today, where he will be talking about research and development and the party’s industrial strategy in Scotland.

The gist:

• New ten-year budgets for British research and development institutions

• Creating jobs in sectors like engineering, research, AI, and life sciences.

• Supporting clean energy projects such as the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult.

• Creating 69,000 jobs across Scotland, including 53,000 new clean energy jobs in sectors like carbon capture, hydrogen onshore and offshore wind.

• The Warm Homes Plan, which will create 16,000 jobs and cut energy bills for thousands of Scots. Currently, almost half of Scottish homes fall below the recommended energy efficiency standard, meaning colder homes and higher bills, according to Labour.

Here is what Starmer will tell voters today:

At this election, Scotland can turn the page on an era of economic turmoil under the Tories and the SNP.

Our changed Labour Party can deliver economic stability, unlock wealth creation and create high quality jobs in the industries of the future.

Our plans will give businesses the certainty to invest and grow, helping turbocharge Scotland’s economy. Scotland deserves leadership that matches the ambition of the Scottish people. A party that won’t just send a message but will send a government to Westminster. That party is Labour.

Labour will put Scotland at the heart of government and deliver the change that Scotland needs.”

Anas Sarwar, Leader of the Scottish Labour Party, will say:

After 17 years of Tory economic turmoil and 14 years of SNP economic failure, Scotland is ready for change.

Labour’s groundbreaking industrial strategy will unlock wealth creation, drive forward growth and bring the jobs of the future to Scotland.

These plans will grasp the vast potential and talent we have here in Scotland and make us home to the jobs of the future – from clean energy to technology to research.

The Tories’ reckless economic mismanagement caused misery for millions of Scots and the SNP’s manifesto costings look like they were cooked up by Liz Truss – but Labour will deliver economic stability our country desperately needs.

Every vote for Scottish Labour is a vote to end Tory economic chaos and deliver a Labour government with Scotland’s voice at its heart.”

In three weeks’ time, Ed Davey could be standing at the dispatch box as the leader of the opposition, Rishi Sunak could be on a plane to California having lost his seat and three-quarters of the cabinet out on the job hunt while more than 500 Labour MPs take their seats. There are no leadership chances for the seatless James Cleverly, Penny Mordaunt or Priti Patel.

Are these predictions real, or as outlandish as they sound? Not all the polls are as apocalyptic for the Conservatives as the scenario above describes, but if Keir Starmer enters parliament with a majority of 150, it would now feel almost disappointing.

Inside Labour HQ, there is a policy not to discuss the polls at all and to make decisions based purely on the party’s own data and precision-targeted strategy.

But for Labour campaigners trying to mobilise voters, the polls are becoming positively unhelpful. It is the Tories who stand to gain the most from the argument that it is important to have a bulwark of Tory MPs as a counter to an unprecedented Labour majority, in order to motivate their disillusioned base and activists.

It is also a key argument for Starmer’s critics on the left. A Labour landslide is nailed on, they argue, so vote with your conscience for Greens or independents if you want to put pressure on the party about the climate crisis or war in Gaza.

Even if Labour HQ believes the polls, the party lacks the capacity to work all of the potential targets. “Tory vote is collapsing to Reform in the long shot seats,” one MP said. “But many I don’t think are realistic. We aren’t re-directing resources.”

“It feels more volatile than ever with a lot of undecideds and uncertains,” said another MP.

Some Labour candidates are so anxious about their own, safe seats they are annoyed at being harangued by Labour HQ to campaign elsewhere – and some of the Labour WhatsApp groups are near mutinous about the degree of control being placed on their movements.

The most recent MRP polls – for Savanta and Ipsos – put between 100 and 150 seats on a knife-edge. The polls use a method taking about 10 times the usual number of survey respondents and extrapolate that data on to constituencies.

But very different methods are used by all the different pollsters now using this new method of MRP polling in order to drill down into the different constituencies:

The latest retail sales figures show that consumer spending picked up last month, while new borrowing statistics are casting a light on the public finances.

May’s retail sales stats show that sales volumes rebounded in May, after a slump in April when bad weather drove shoppers from the high street. That’s rather stronger than the 1.5% rise forecast by City economists.

Retail sales volumes jumped by 2.9% in May 2024, following a fall of 1.8% in April, the Office for National Statistics reports.

These increases suggest people feel more confident about economic conditions – as shown by the latest poll of consumer confidence from GfK. But while that may bolster Rishi Sunak’s claim that the economy is turning the corner, this isn’t providing the PM with a poll boost.

And one more: deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner will be on the Today programme at 8.10, we’ll bring you the key moments from that interview live.

Here is a more detailed schedule of the day ahead:

• 11.30am: Rishi Sunak campaigning in north Wales and launching the Welsh Conservative manifesto. David TC Davies is on the morning media round.

• 10.30am: Keir Starmer and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar visit Scottish business. Deputy Labour Leader Angela Rayner is on the morning round for Labour.

• 10.15am: Ed Davey visiting a college in Harrogate, Yorkshire and a railway station in north Norfolk.

• 13.45: Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner to visit an advanced manufacturing centre in the West Midlands.

• 7pm: Farage to be interviewed by Nick Robinson for BBC Panorama special. Farage will be campaigning in Clacton during the day.

Two decades ago, a household with the median income could afford to buy an average-priced house in England. Now, they can afford only the cheapest 10% of properties.

In the capital, the situation is even more absurd. An average first-time buyer in London now has to save for more than 30 years to afford a deposit on an average home. The result is ever more people trapped in the private rented sector, at the mercy of unregulated landlords and subject to rents that have reached a record high. The number of adults living with their parents has risen by 700,000 over the last decade, with about 30% of 25- to 29-year-olds now living back at home.

Tory doctrine has created not a nation of homeowners, but a country of squeezed renters, overcrowded flat-sharers and rough sleepers, with the number of people sleeping on the streets more than double the figure when the Conservatives came to power in 2010.

So what is Sunak’s grand plan to fix this mess? His momentous proposal is to resuscitate the still-warm corpse of help to buy, the single policy that the government’s housing strategy has relied on for the last decade.

Help to buy was first introduced in 2013 by the then-chancellor George Osborne, and trumpeted as “the biggest government intervention in the housing market since the right to buy” of the 1980s. Over the last four decades, that disastrous policy has seen two-thirds of Britain’s council homes transferred from public to private hands, forcing local authorities to sell off more homes each year than they can build.

The policy provided first-time buyers with an equity loan of up to 20% of the value of a new-build property – or 40% in superheated London – capped at a total price of £600,000. The buyer was required to stump up a deposit of just 5%, with the remainder covered by a traditional mortgage. It was a reaction to sluggish rates of housebuilding, when developers were still licking their wounds from the financial crisis, and banks were reluctant to lend more than 75% of a new-build home’s value to purchasers, cutting many first-time buyers out of the market. The dubious logic behind help to buy was that by stimulating housing demand, housing supply would inevitably follow.

Economists balked. Christian Hilber, professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics, wrote at the time: “Help to buy will likely have the effect of pushing up house prices (and rents) further with very little positive effect on new construction. Housing will likely become less – not more – affordable for young would-be-owners!”