Germany’s conservatives choose the country’s probable next leader
“FRIEDRICH MERZ is doing it, and I’m fine with that.” This brief statement by Markus Söder, the head of Bavaria’s governing Christian Social Union (CSU), was enough to confirm what had long been clear in German political circles: that Mr Merz, leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the CSU’s larger sibling, would be the parties’ joint candidate at next year’s federal election. Mr Merz will thus lead the opposition conservatives’ bid to unseat Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic (SPD) chancellor.
If the decision came earlier than many expected, it was also no surprise. Mr Söder is an ill-disciplined sort who has never worked out how to convert his regional success into the national leadership he craves. Many in the CDU blame him for hobbling the CDU/CSU’s disastrous election campaign in 2021 by pursuing the nomination even after it was clear he could not win it. At a hastily assembled joint appearance in Berlin on September 17th, Messrs Merz and Söder made it clear that there would be no repeat of that debacle. Germany’s next election is due on September 28th 2025. That leaves Mr Merz, who has bags of political experience but none of the governing sort, a year to introduce himself to a sceptical electorate.
Germans are deeply unhappy with their current government, leaving Mr Merz in pole position to win the next vote. The CDU/CSU is polling at around 33% (see chart), more than the combined figure for the three parties in Mr Scholz’s disputatious “traffic-light” coalition (comprising the SPD, Greens and liberal Free Democrats, or FDP). The CDU did reasonably well at state elections in Germany’s east earlier this month: it retained control of Saxony, holding off a surge from the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and looks set to take over the government in neighbouring Thuringia, though in both places it will have to govern with awkward partners.
A sprightly 68-year-old private-jet-owning millionaire with multiple lives in politics, business and law, Mr Merz has shifted the CDU, the party of Angela Merkel, rightward since taking the reins in 2022. Two previous botched bids to lead the party, and a reputation for arrogance and grudge-holding, left many in the CDU wondering whether he had what it took. His dreadful relationship with Mrs Merkel—he never forgave her for besting him in an intra-CDU power struggle two decades ago—worried many who appreciated her talent at winning elections. He has sometimes seemed unsure whether he wanted the top job himself.
Yet Mr Merz has silenced the doubters, at least for now. He has diligently worked to win over the CDU’s moderate or “social” wing, whose members include important state premiers, while stamping his own brand of crunchy conservatism on the party. “As old as he is, he is able to learn from his mistakes,” says Johann Wadephul, a deputy chair of the CDU/CSU Bundestag group. In May he was re-elected by nearly 90% of CDU delegates.
The unpopularity of the traffic-light coalition has helped Mr Merz’s cause, and his bombastic rhetorical style offers a sharp contrast to Mr Scholz’s reticence. He has hammered the government on everything from its budgetary proposals to what he considers its halting support for Ukraine: he decries Mr Scholz’s refusal to donate German Taurus cruise missiles to Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces, for example.
In recent weeks Mr Merz has been especially strident on irregular migration, following the murder of three Germans by a Syrian asylum-seeker who had evaded a deportation order. Last week he led a CDU walkout of a “migration summit” with the governing parties. Having found receptive ears for that message, Mr Merz can be expected to stick to it as the election approaches (he also hopes talking tough on immigration will stunt the growth of the AfD). But he said on September 17th that his election priority will be Germany’s faltering economic performance.
Mr Merz may also need to offer some hint of his preference for coalition partners, in a fragmented party landscape in which populist parties of left and right command growing vote-shares. Mr Söder has declared the Greens beyond the pale, a potentially troublesome stance that infuriates those CDU premiers who lead successful coalitions with the Greens in states like North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein. But the FDP, the traditional partner of the CDU/CSU, is polling so low that it may not make it into the Bundestag in the next election. Since the CDU/CSU will not govern with the AfD or other fringe outfits, that would probably leave a Merkel-style “grand coalition” with the SPD as the only option.
As for Mr Scholz, he proclaims himself up for the fight. The chancellor’s advisers think Mr Merz is a deeply flawed candidate. They aim to portray him as a reckless, out-of-touch sort who will slash pensions and undermine workers’ rights; they will seek to exploit his relative unpopularity with women and younger voters. (They may also hope to goad him into a hot-tempered remark or two in the heat of the campaign). Although the SPD’s ratings are dismal, for now voters seem no more keen on either man as chancellor. A large plurality would prefer neither of them to run the country (see chart).
Yet without an unpopular record to defend, Mr Merz is in a better position than his rival. Indeed, Mr Scholz’s own candidacy is not even assured. Should the SPD fail to take first place at an election in Brandenburg, another eastern state, on September 22nd, some in the party will call for the chancellor to make way for new blood. Mr Merz’s position is more secure. Having won over his party, and now the CSU, his biggest challenge awaits: to convert himself, in voters’ eyes, from an opposition leader to a chancellor-in-waiting. ■
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