RFK junior and Tulsi Gabbard should sail through a cowed Senate
TWO OF Donald Trump’s most controversial cabinet choices appear headed for confirmation after winning critical Senate committee votes on February 4th. It was a political triumph for Mr Trump, whose lieutenants managed to cajole sceptical Republican senators into approving two unorthodox nominees who have been widely criticised as unfit for their positions. Yet this may prove to be the high point of the president’s influence over the legislative branch.
After much lobbying of wobbly senators, Robert F. Kennedy junior, Mr Trump’s pick as secretary of health and human services, and Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as director of national intelligence, cleared their initial hurdles without much drama, albeit on strict party-line votes. Both nominees almost certainly will win approval on the floor of the full Senate, where Republicans hold a three-seat majority. Pete Hegseth, a combat veteran and Fox News host, had earlier won approval as defence secretary. Kash Patel, nominated for FBI director, is very likely to be approved as well. It’s a remarkable turn of events given the shock and outcry that followed Mr Trump’s announcements of these nominees last year.
Mr Kennedy was always a strange choice, an environmental lawyer and conspiracy theorist with strong opinions but little managerial experience or policy knowledge. During his confirmation hearing he fumbled basic questions about the department he is now all but certain to lead. Ms Gabbard, like Mr Kennedy a former Democrat, delivered a more poised and confident performance but dug in hard when peppered with tough questions about her past support for Edward Snowden, the former National Security Agency leaker. James Lankford, a Republican senator from Oklahoma, conceded that he was “kinda surprised” at her answers. He supported her anyway.
How did the nominees turn their fortunes around? Gentle persuasion coupled with public threats to go after Republican dissenters when they sought re-election seems to have done the job. J.D. Vance, the vice-president, stepped in to coax former colleagues such as Todd Young, an Indiana senator and Gabbard sceptic, who had lengthy conversations with Mr Vance before announcing his yes vote. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana senator and Kennedy doubter, thanked Mr Vance “for his honest counsel” when announcing that he would vote to send Mr Kennedy forward.
Behind Mr Vance’s discreet soft touch was a menacing public threat: “Any Republican Senator who votes against @TulsiGabbard deserves a primary,” declared Donald Trump junior, who rallies MAGA world to various causes. “No more Deep State bullshit!!!!” That warning carried more weight given that Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, has made plain his willingness to fund primary challengers to senators seen as undermining Mr Trump.
Mr Trump was, by his standards, relatively quiet throughout. But he also let it be known that he might make recess appointments, which allow a president to bypass Senate confirmation and temporarily fill a position when Congress is not in session. Republican leaders in the Senate would prefer to avoid that for high-level nominees, though they are more open to using it for lesser positions. A wavering Republican senator might have reasonably concluded that paying a price for a no vote on Ms Gabbard or Mr Kennedy made no sense if Mr Trump might appoint the nominee anyway.
The outcome leaves the Senate looking spineless. Indeed, only one cabinet nominee—Matt Gaetz, Mr Trump’s initial choice for attorney-general—has had to withdraw over Republican opposition. But this does not mean that Mr Trump can expect smooth sailing for his forthcoming domestic legislative agenda. Strong-arming individual senators on nominations, where presidents usually receive some deference, was well-suited for a MAGA pressure campaign. It could focus on just a handful of senators and Mr Trump’s preferences were clear.
Passing complex policy legislation by wrangling dozens of competing interest groups will be much harder. Mr Trump and his allies will have to contend with two chambers and 535 legislators. The House of Representatives, in particular, is raucous and unpredictable. Moderate and hardline caucuses compete for influence there and members have already shown a willingness to buck Mr Trump on fiscal matters. In December, 38 Republicans voted against a Trump-endorsed budget deal. Republican senators also will assert themselves more forcefully on tax reform or government funding than on cabinet nominees.
Mr Trump is on his way to having his administration run by his people, unorthodox though some of them may be. Approving a budget to run the government will be another challenge entirely. Funding runs out on March 14th. ■