Can China sap a divided and isolated Taiwan of its will to resist?
One of the Communist Party’s great victories in the Chinese civil war was its takeover of Beijing, then called Peiping, in 1949. After a month-long siege, the local Nationalist commander surrendered the city without a fight. Among party cadres “the Peiping model” has become code for a bloodless Chinese takeover of Taiwan.. Chinese state media have invoked the Peiping model to explain military exercises to prepare for a future blockade of Taiwan.
To induce a Taiwanese surrender, China would not only have to besiege Taiwan, but to convince its people that resistance was futile. The People’s Liberation Army may only be rehearsing a siege, but the psychological operations are already under way. Over the past four years the number of prosecutions for espionage in Taiwan’s courts has quadrupled. Since President Lai Ching-te launched a crackdown on Chinese infiltration in March, at least five members of the ruling party (including a former aide of his) have been put under investigation for spying.
In the past, hostile moves by China have backfired as Taiwanese rallied to the flag. But Taiwan’s situation is growing more precarious. For years pro-China media have promoted the notion that America does not care about Taiwan’s well-being and wants only to sacrifice it on the battlefield to weaken China. Donald Trump’s hostility to allies has given that narrative the ring of truth.
Taiwan is also in a domestic political crisis, with the president and the leaders of the legislature trying to undermine one another. The legislature is dominated by the Kuomintang (KMT), which has long advocated closer ties with China, and the populist Taiwan People’s Party, which appeals to young people. Mr Lai is from the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), which disavows even the notional goal of reunification with China.
The DPP has thrown its support behind a mass campaign to recall KMT legislators, accusing them of scheming with China to weaken Taiwan. They point at Fu Kun-chi, the KMT’s legislative leader, who last year led a delegation to Beijing to meet Wang Huning, the number four in the Communist Party who is in charge of policy on Taiwan. Mr Wang welcomed Mr Fu with talk of being one family and working together to prevent Taiwan’s independence.
Upon their return, KMT legislators adopted a law expanding the parliament’s powers at the expense of the president. When parts of it were ruled unconstitutional, they passed another law that paralysed the constitutional court. In January they made sweeping cuts to the budget, including defence, the coastguard and cyber-security.
Taiwan’s prime minister called the cuts “suicidal”. Mr Lai warned that they would undermine Taiwan’s security and give allies the impression Taiwan was not serious about defending itself. KMT legislators deny that they are plotting with China and insist they are simply acting in the best interests of their constituents. But China clearly seeks to help politicians who pay it homage, such as Mr Fu. He represents the sparsely populated county of Hualien, whose main industries are farming and tourism, which both rely on China.
Whereas activists in Taipei accuse Mr Fu of being a sell-out, in Hualien his ties with China have made him more popular. In 2022 China banned imports from Taiwan of pomelo, a citrus fruit. After Mr Fu’s trip to Beijing it lifted the ban on pomelos from Hualien, but not on those from pro-DPP areas. Hualien is lucky to have politicians who can negotiate with China, says Yang Hong-ji, a pomelo farmer. Many locals also blame the DPP for needlessly antagonising China. “We ordinary people just want to make money and live and eat well. We don’t want to make everything a political calculation,” says Chen Yi-feng, the chair of Hualien’s tourism association.
Hualien doesn’t reflect all of Taiwan. Recent polls show that the DPP still has roughly 40% public support. But they also show trends that would please Chinese officials working on cognitive warfare. Mr Lai’s approval rate has dropped to 46% from 58% when he was inaugurated a year ago. The DPP’s recall campaign is not popular. And 60% think America is not trustworthy under Mr Trump, according to the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation.
Polling also shows growing pessimism. More than 80% of Taiwanese want to keep the “status quo”, but only about 20% think that is possible in the long run, according to Wu Jieh-min of Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s top research institution. Only about 4% of Taiwanese support unification. But asked what they expect to happen rather than what they prefer, about 30% say Taiwan will end up “being unified by mainland China”, 8% more than in 2020.
Resistance is tiresome
Chinese influence aside, there is also genuine frustration with the DPP. Many young voters think it exploits fear of China while neglecting everyday problems like unaffordable housing and low wages. “I’ve been listening to this script of kangzhong baotai, (resist China and protect Taiwan) for 25 years,” said Zhong Ming-xuan, a popular Taiwanese influencer, in a recent YouTube video. “I’m sick of it.”
The DPP worries that if it prepares too strenuously for war or disruptions to trade, it will frighten voters. It has tried to make Taiwan’s infrastructure more robust, but has not held realistic wartime drills for ordinary citizens. “We can only know whether Taiwan is resilient enough if there is a crisis,” notes Lee Jyun-yi of INDSR, a think-tank. He may find out soon. ■