‘There will be no surprises’: Kagame set to sweep to fourth term as Rwandan president

Two weeks ago, the Rwandan president, Paul Kagame, launched his presidential campaign in front of thousands of people donned in the blue, white and red colours of his party on a university campus in the northern district of Musanze.

The former military leader is seeking a fourth term in office as Rwanda goes to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections on 15 July. A win would extend his presidency to three decades.

Given the longstanding dominance of Kagame’s party – the Rwandan Patriotic Front – and widely reported cases of his administration’s stifling of criticism and open dissent, political analysts and civil society members fear that the elections will further tighten his iron-fist grip on the country of 13 million people.

Kagame first came into power in 1994 after he led the Rwandan Patriotic Front rebel group to defeat Hutu extremist forces and end the genocide that killed more than 800,000 people, mostly members of the Tutsi minority, in about 100 days. He then became vice-president and defence minister, before being elected president by parliament in 2000 after the resignation of Pasteur Bizimungu. Each time he has sought re-election – in 2003, 2010 and 2017 – he has won more than 90% of the vote.

In the Kagame administration’s telling, Rwandan politics remains defined by the tragic legacy of the 1994 genocide and, therefore, it’s not yet time for a politics that “has a tendency to create divisions”, said David Kiwuwa, associate professor of international studies at the University of Nottingham. “Kagame’s stay in power will ensure a continuation of consensus politics and human rights a secondary priority,” he said.

Kagame has stabilised and transformed the country since the events of 30 years ago. Access to electricity to households has widened. Corruption has gone down. The capital, Kigali, has transformed from a ghost town during the genocide, with clean streets lined with stylish new buildings that host hotels, conference centres and other local and international businesses. The country has also positioned itself as a sports, cultural and conferencing hub. The BK Arena in Kigali hosts concerts and sporting events such as the Basketball Africa League.

But while some view Kagame as a visionary leader, others see him as an oppressive despot. During his reign, many dissidents and critics have been jailed, others have died or disappeared suspiciously, instilling fear and suppressing freedom of speech, expression and association. Rwandan officials have long denied the claims.

At least five opposition members and four government critics and journalists have died or disappeared in suspicious circumstances since the 2017 presidential election, according to Human Rights Watch.

“It’s concerning to see that the ruling party’s been increasingly cracking down and its threshold for criticism getting increasingly lower as the years have progressed, to the point where there’s very few today who are able to speak independently and not face very serious consequences,” said Clémentine de Montjoye, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch. She was prevented from entering Rwanda earlier this year.

Rwanda is rated “Not Free” in the latest Freedom in the World report, which tracks global trends in political rights and civil liberties, with a score of 23 out of 100. The report by the Freedom House nonprofit notes that key issues in the country include a lack of free and fair elections, a lack of opportunities for political opposition to campaign, a lack of free media and a lack of judicial independence.

Rwanda is one of only 12 countries that have been “Not Free” the entire time that Freedom House has been assessing them, according to Yana Gorokhovskaia, the research director of strategy and design at Freedom House, which supports and defends democracy around the world.

Eight people applied to the National Electoral Commission to contest in the presidential election, but only two were cleared, with the others being disqualified for various reasons.

The electoral commission barred critic Diane Rwigara of the People Salvation Movement from contesting, saying she had failed to provide the correct documentation for her candidacy. It also prevented opposition figures Victoire Ingabire and Bernard Ntaganda from competing due to past convictions.

The disqualifications mean the opposition is “sort of not a real factor in the election”, said Gorokhovskaia.

“Technically, the leader of the country is elected, but they’re elected without real competition. So the election is sort of pro forma,” she said.

Kagame now faces the same two opponents he did in 2017: Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green party of Rwanda and independent candidate and former journalist Philippe Mpayimana. In the last election, Mpayimana garnered 0.72% the vote, while Habineza got 0.45%. Many consider them underdogs, but their supporters want change.

“We believe that after 30 years in power, Kagame does not have more to offer and people need change and inject in fresh ideas but I know we have small chance,” said Agnes Bateta, a shop attendant and a supporter of Habineza.

“Many people want change but cannot say it openly for fearing reprisals,” she said.

Analysts say Habineza and Mpayimana have limited name recognition, financial resources and organizational ability to mount any serious challenge to Kagame.

“There will be no surprises and only maintenance of the status quo,” said Kiwuwa, the associate professor of international studies at the University of Nottingham. “We can confidently say that Kagame is on course to match or be close to the 99% score he garnered last time.”

Kagame’s rallies attract tens of thousands, while his opponents struggle to raise numbers.

Despite criticism of his rule, Kagame’s supporters insist he is the best person to rule the east African country.

“Many still admire Kagame for uniting the country beyond ethnicity and he has provided security to all Rwandans,” Justin Ruhimbana, a 23-year-old mechanic and Kagame supporter, said in Kigali.

“Nobody is ready to go back to politics of identity that caused the genocide in the past,” said Ruhimbana, who will vote for the first time next week.

This year’s election will be the first in which people born during Kagame’s presidency will be old enough to vote.

Internationally, observers and allies of Rwanda, which is increasingly becoming an important regional player, are keen to see how Kagame will move geopolitically if he wins.

Earlier this year, the UK signed a bill to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, but the newly-elected British prime minister, Keir Starmer, has said he is scrapping the plan.

And the United States and the United Nations have in the past accused Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in fighting that has caused deaths, displacement and a humanitarian crisis. Kagame has denied supporting M23 and the presence of Rwandan military in the region.

A total of 9.5 million Rwandans have been registered as eligible voters in the elections, according to National Electoral Commission, which says about 2 million of them are first-time voters.