Conservatives hold ground in German state elections in setback for Scholz

Germany’s opposition conservatives have held ground in the key states of Hesse and Bavaria in elections that highlighted discontent with Olaf Scholz’s centre-left government amid worries about economic slowdown and migration.

The results in the states, which together account for about a fifth of the German population, may well heighten tensions in the chancellor’s awkward federal coalition of his Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

The coalition has been blighted since it took office in late 2021 by infighting and accusations of weak leadership by Scholz. This has raised doubts over its ability to tackle the host of crises facing Europe’s largest economy, ranging from the Ukraine war to the green transition.

In Hesse, home to the financial capital, Frankfurt, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) were forecast to get 35.5% of the vote for the state legislature compared with the SPD’s 16%, according to an exit poll by the ARD state broadcaster, probably allowing them to govern for another term.

The result dealt a personal blow to the interior minister, Nancy Faeser, who had been running as the SPD lead candidate but whose campaign was dogged by criticism of her handling of a surge in irregular migration.

The CDU’s sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), which has run Bavaria since 1957, was projected to win 37% of the vote in that state – its worst result since 1950, although only a slight drop from 2018. As such it is expected to continue its coalition with the populist Free Voters on 14%. The SPD, which is traditionally weak in Bavaria, trailed on 8.5%.

The two junior partners in Scholz’s coalition, the Greens and FDP, did worse than in the 2018 elections in the two states – with the FDP on track to drop out of Bavaria’s parliament.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) made gains, rising to 16% in Hesse and 15% in Bavaria, compared with 13.1% and 11.6% respectively in 2018, confirming the political ascendancy of a party created just 10 years ago.

The nationalist, anti-migrant AfD is polling in second place nationwide, up from fifth in the 2021 election, in a shift that could make it harder for Germany to form stable majorities given that other parties refuse to work with it.

Approval of Scholz’s government remains at its lowest level since it took office in December 2021, according to the ARD-Deutschland Trend survey, with four out of five Germans dissatisfied with its work.

“We are right in the middle of the federal legislative term, where it is not unusual for the government to have low approval ratings and lose state elections,” said Philipp Koeker, a political scientist at the University of Hanover.

In response, coalition parties were likely to continue to follow increasingly separate paths to focus on issues relevant to their core electorate, he said, while all taking a tougher stance on migration.