Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Russian President Vladimir Putin visits India for the first time since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Sri Lanka grapples with a humanitarian crisis after a deadly cyclone, and former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s health resurfaces questions about who will succeed her as party leader.
India’s Putin Conundrum
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming trip to India, his first since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, seems simple at first glance. It reasserts the strength of India’s special relationship with Russia and sends a message to Washington that New Delhi won’t be intimidated by U.S. pressure to back away from Moscow.
During the visit on Thursday and Friday, Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss possible deals on a wide range of issues—energy, aviation, critical minerals, defense—that highlight the breadth of the partnership. They will surely reaffirm their support for groups that aim to counter the Western-led global economic order, such as BRICS.
There will be bear hugs, happy talk, and fresh pledges of cooperation—and that is as it should be. As India faces the wrath of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, reels from its worst conflict with Pakistan in decades, and confronts wider regional challenges, it’s arguably never needed its close Russian friend more.
Yet Putin’s visit comes at a somewhat precarious moment for India-Russia relations. The partnership is still warm, but it has become a bit fragile. This is a significant departure from the norm, as the relationship has long been deep and stable. (Indian officials like to say that it has never experienced a crisis.)
Russia’s war in Ukraine has put India in a tough spot. New Delhi opposes the conflict, which has created complications—from Russia’s growing ties with China to the growing Western pressure that India faces to do less business with Russia. That pressure is starting to pay off: In recent weeks, India has ramped up U.S. oil imports and inked a new gas deal with the United States.
Reliance Industries, one of India’s most powerful companies, stopped importing oil from Russian energy giant Rosneft on Nov. 20, the day before U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil exporters went into effect. Since then, India’s Russian oil imports have declined by nearly one-third. All of this threatens India-Russia energy cooperation—a pillar of the bilateral partnership.
There is another unusual backdrop to Putin’s visit this week: India’s ties with the United States have become tense, in large part due to the additional 25 percent tariffs slapped on New Delhi because of its Russian oil imports.
India faces a conundrum; by taking steps to strengthen ties with Moscow or Washington, New Delhi risks setting back ties with the other. Putin and Modi will use their summit this week to pursue new arms deals—an especially urgent objective for India after its conflict with Pakistan. This won’t please the United States. Meanwhile, India’s decision to increase its U.S. energy purchases likely hasn’t gone over well in Moscow.
India’s challenge shouldn’t be overstated. Its ties with both Russia and the United States are sufficiently multifaceted and resilient to withstand blows. But for now, Modi must carry out a new type of balancing act that is less about managing two strong partnerships and more about minimizing further risks to each one.
The good news for Modi is that Putin’s visit is easier to manage on the domestic political stage. Putin and Russia more broadly enjoy strong public support among most Indians. Many people in India will likely see the Russian leader’s visit as a welcome form of defiance against unrelenting pressure from the Trump administration, which has upset the Indian public for months.
Four years since Putin’s last visit, India’s relationship with Russia faces some headwinds, but he will still receive a warm welcome from the government and the public.
What We’re Following
Catastrophic cyclone hits Sri Lanka. A massive cyclone struck Sri Lanka’s eastern coast last Friday, triggering an urgent humanitarian crisis. According to World Health Organization estimates on Tuesday, more than 230,000 people have been displaced; 410 people are confirmed dead and more than 330 are still missing.
Flooding and landslides have complicated emergency response activities, suggesting that casualty figures could rise. Some Sri Lankan critics have faulted their government for mistakes that they say prevented a more effective response, including the absence of coordinated relief and rescue systems and a failure to act on early warnings of disaster.
Sri Lanka has declared a national emergency, and President Anura Kumara Dissanayake called the cyclone the “largest and most challenging natural disaster in our history.” The international community has responded quickly with pledges of assistance. Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Nepal, and Pakistan have all promised aid—showing how the divided region can come together to address shared climate threats.
National Guard shooting fallout. The shooting of two National Guard troops in Washington last week led to immediate U.S. policy change for asylum-seekers and Afghans seeking to resettle in the United States. The suspected shooter, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, arrived in the United States from Afghanistan in 2021.
According to social workers aware of his condition, Lakanwal showed signs of serious mental health stress in recent years, including isolating himself from his family. These disclosures are among many reasons to believe that the attack was not linked to Afghanistan-based terrorism, as Trump administration officials and also Pakistan’s government have suggested.
No group has claimed or even publicly commented on the attack. The most potent Afghanistan-based terrorist organization, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), doesn’t currently target the United States. Another, the Islamic State-Khorasan, does have the U.S. in its crosshairs but hasn’t said anything about the shooting.
Lakanwal himself was not known to be a part of any terrorist organization. However, during the years of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, he was a member of an infamous CIA-sponsored paramilitary organization known for its brutality. U.S. officials are reportedly investigating whether post-traumatic stress disorder may have been a motive behind Lakanwal’s actions last week.
Political crisis averted in Pakistan. It’s been a tense few days for Pakistani politics, amid questions about the well-being of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Close family members, including one of his sons, had voiced concerns because they said their access to Khan had been cut off for a few weeks with no explanation.
In recent days, Khan’s supporters congregated outside of his prison in the military hub of Rawalpindi, demanding more information. However, one of Khan’s sisters, Uzma Khanum, was permitted to meet him on Tuesday. Khanum said he was in good health, though she added that he was isolated and being subjected to “mental torture.”
Khan’s imprisonment is a sensitive issue for Pakistani officials. Despite being jailed for more than two years on charges that Khan and his supporters reject, the former cricket star remains popular in Pakistan and among the diaspora. The country’s civilian and military leadership has a strong interest in ensuring that Khan remains safe and healthy in prison, but it also doesn’t want excess attention brought to him.
The decision to grant Khanum access to Khan appears to be a gesture not just to reassure Khan’s family, but also to appease his support base—with the hope that things will now quiet down.
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Under the Radar
Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the head of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was admitted to a Dhaka hospital with a lung infection on Nov. 23. BNP leaders said Zia, who has faced serious health issues for years, is in “very critical” condition.
Zia’s hospitalization will rekindle long-standing speculation around succession issues within the BNP, a large dynastic party and bitter rival of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. Bangladesh is expected to hold national elections in February that the BNP is strongly favored to win. (Hasina resigned under pressure from mass protests in August 2024, leading to more than a year of interim rule.)
Zia’s son Tarique Rahman has long been seen as the favorite to assume party leadership after Zia, but Rahman has lived in self-exile in London for nearly 20 years. One of the big unanswered questions in current Bangladeshi politics is why Rahman hasn’t come home, with the upcoming elections and Hasina’s departure seemingly paving the way for him to return without risk.
Another question is if Rahman will be the BNP’s candidate for prime minister if he returns, as opposed to one of the party’s non-dynastic senior leaders who remained in Bangladesh during Hasina’s repressive regime. With the election drawing closer, answers must start coming soon.