Almost four years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, diplomatic efforts to stop the fighting have gained momentum. U.S. President Donald Trump, who once promised to end the war within 24 hours, has been putting intense pressure on Kyiv and its European backers to cut a deal with Moscow—even if it comes at Ukraine’s expense. After halting military aid to Kyiv earlier this year, Washington began advocating for Moscow’s territorial goals last month amid reports of White House plans for lucrative business deals with the Kremlin.
On the battlefield, a gruesome stalemate has set in. The 750-mile front is now so saturated with drones that movement is deadly, and Russia’s snail-paced gains have come at an immense human cost. Meanwhile, Russia has ramped up its nightly attacks on civilian targets while Ukraine is increasingly striking energy and military infrastructure deep inside Russia.
Recent months have also seen intensified Russian incursions into Europe using military aircraft and drones, often probing military installations and critical infrastructure. European governments—which have warned that Russia is preparing for another war once the fighting in Ukraine stops—are struggling to respond. It doesn’t help that White House pronouncements have made it unclear whether the United States will still get involved if Russia attacks a European NATO state.
As the war nears the four-year mark and the push for a negotiated peace accelerates, here are some of Foreign Policy’s best articles from 2025 to fill you in on the state of the conflict today.
1. Putin Will Never Compromise on Ukraine
By Casey Michel, Nov. 11
Negotiations with Russia are predicated on the idea that the Kremlin can be convinced to abandon its goal of subjugating Ukraine. This is a false hope, analyst Casey Michel argues, since Russian President Vladimir Putin will bear any cost to achieve his maximalist vision.
The West should therefore give up on deterrence and shift to a long-term containment strategy akin to that used against the Soviet Union. “It’s time to put to bed the idea that Putin can be persuaded and recognize that he must simply be outlasted,” Michel writes.
2. Europe Is at War
By Michael Kimmage, Oct. 20
Russia’s intensifying intrusions into NATO airspace are not some hybrid shadow play, but part of the same war over Europe’s future as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Accepting this uncomfortable reality, historian Michael Kimmage argues, will help Europeans use their strengths to withstand Russian intimidation. The good news, he writes, is that “[i]n a long confrontation with Russia, Europe holds many of the best cards.”
3. Why Steve Witkoff Is Trump’s Master of Disaster
By Christian Caryl, Aug. 19
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff takes part in U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in Washington on Aug. 18.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
U.S.-Russia negotiations continue to cast a spotlight on Steve Witkoff, Trump’s longtime golf partner and special envoy to Russia and the Middle East. Christian Caryl writes that Witkoff’s lack of experience, embrace of Kremlin talking points, and many missteps are emblematic of Trump’s “low-information approach to international relations,” which has dangerous consequences for Ukraine and Europe.
4. Putin’s Fear of a Humiliating Economic Crisis
By Agathe Demarais, Sept. 4
Putin’s engagement with Trump is based on his need to rescue a sinking Russian economy, FP columnist Agathe Demarais argues. His eagerness to negotiate sanctions relief and investment deals suggests that economic pressure remains the best leverage that Ukraine’s European supporters have over the Kremlin. The question now, Demarais writes, is whether Europe and the United States will “choose to play the economic ace they still have up their sleeves.”
5. Biden’s Long Shadow Over Ukraine
By Adrian Karatnycky, Dec. 5
Trump often talks about “Biden’s war” in Ukraine, falsely blaming his predecessor for the conflict. But in a different sense, the war is indeed former U.S. President Joe Biden’s, analyst Adrian Karatnycky argues. The Biden administration’s fears of crossing red lines, slow-rolling of aid, and micromanagement of Ukraine’s defense continue to define the war’s contours to this day.