Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: A death sentence for former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina raises the risk of election violence, India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party wins big in a key state election, and Indian authorities identify a suspect in what they say was a suicide attack near New Delhi’s Red Fort.
A Charged Political Moment in Bangladesh
On Monday, Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death on charges of crimes against humanity for her role in a deadly crackdown against protesters last year. Hasina fled the country in the wake of demonstrations that forced her to resign; she was convicted and sentenced in absentia.
According to United Nations estimates, Hasina’s security forces killed as many as 1,400 people participating in the 2024 mass uprising. Some victims’ families may see the verdict as a form of justice, and it united a disparate political class—beyond Hasina’s Awami League party—in its desire to see the former leader investigated and prosecuted.
However, the verdict exacerbates Bangladesh’s political and internal security challenges as the country edges toward a critical national election in February.
Unsurprisingly, the exiled Hasina rejected the verdict as politically motivated. In her view, the interim government in Dhaka has appropriated the ICT—which Hasina formed in 2010 to investigate crimes against humanity during Bangladesh’s 1971 independence war—and used it to settle scores. (Hasina’s government also faced criticism for politicizing the ICT.)
The verdict comes at a moment of stress for the Awami League. Many top party leaders have fled abroad or gone into hiding. According to human rights groups, politically motivated prosecutions have targeted many people linked to the former ruling party. Images of Hasina’s father—independence hero and party founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman—once ubiquitous across Bangladesh, have been removed.
The Awami League hasn’t been banned entirely, but it is barred from political activities ahead of the February election. This week’s verdict makes an angry party even angrier—an ominous development as the vote draws closer. In the days before the announcement, Dhaka was hit by dozens of arson attacks, and more have occurred since.
The verdict increases the risks of violence, especially after Hasina’s son, Sajeeb Wazed, warned that that if the ban on the Awami League’s political activities wasn’t removed, the party would block the election. “Our protests are going to get stronger and stronger, and we will do whatever it takes,” Wazed said.
However, the Awami League’s reaction to the verdict against Hasina will only prompt Dhaka to double down on the activities ban. This political anger plays out in a volatile environment. The Bangladeshi public is increasingly impatient with the interim government amid economic stress, law and order concerns, and a reform process that lacks transparency.
The upcoming election is thus especially high stakes. There are massive public expectations for a free and fair vote, which Bangladesh hasn’t overseen since 2008. Managing the risk of violence—not uncommon in South Asia’s electoral politics—from the start of the campaign season through to election day is a top priority. Though Awami League partisans may pose the biggest threat, others could resort to violence as well.
Compounding the challenge for Dhaka is the country’s police force, which has become gun-shy after facing backlash for its role in last year’s deadly crackdown. Internal concerns about low morale and underperformance raise questions about state capacity to limit political violence. Bangladesh’s army, once a dominant political actor, has also taken a step back in recent years and may be reluctant to enforce security on the streets.
If it’s able to ensure a relatively peaceful election period, Bangladesh’s interim government has an opportunity to go out on a high. Few have a stronger incentive to do so than its leader, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who will have his legacy on his mind as he prepares to return to private life.
What We’re Following
BJP victorious in Bihar. This month’s election in the Indian state of Bihar was arguably the biggest test for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since last year’s national vote. And they passed the test with flying colors: The BJP-led alliance in Bihar swept to victory with 202 of 243 seats up for grabs.
The landslide was made more impressive by the significant turnout—recorded at nearly 67 percent, the highest figure since the state’s first polls in 1951. The BJP overcame other challenges, including the state’s high unemployment and its poverty; poor people in the state had previously gravitated to the opposition alliance.
Bread-and-butter issues dominated narratives during the campaign. The BJP promised a range of social welfare measures for women—a savvy move in a state where they make up more than half the voter base. (Female turnout reached nearly 72 percent.) The BJP is now well-positioned in advance of several other upcoming state elections, including in West Bengal.
Modi and his party now have fresh evidence to counter criticism that they are vulnerable to anti-incumbency sentiment since the BJP’s worse-than-expected performance in last year’s election.
India’s Hasina problem. Since she fled Bangladesh in August 2024, Hasina has been living in India, where she is viewed as a close friend by both the ruling BJP and the opposition Indian National Congress party. Though India and Bangladesh have an extradition treaty, New Delhi is unlikely to turn her over to Dhaka in the wake of the ICT verdict.
But refusing to extradite Hasina could undercut India’s diplomatic interests. New Delhi has signaled a desire to ease tensions with Dhaka after Bangladesh’s elections in February. But continuing to host Hasina could reduce prospects for rapprochement; the next Bangladeshi government will likely be just as adamant that India turn her over as the current one.
India’s safest bet may be the middle road: identifying a third country that will provide Hasina a visa, take her in, and ensure her security. This likely rules out any country in the West but could include Belarus or various Gulf states—places that were reportedly identified as possible new homes for Hasina just after she left Bangladesh for India last year.
India names driver in car blast. On Monday, India’s National Investigation Agency identified Umar Un Nabi as the driver and “alleged suicide bomber” in the car explosion near New Delhi’s Red Fort last week that killed at least 10 people. Nabi was reportedly a doctor from Indian-administered Kashmir who taught at a university in Faridabad, a New Delhi suburb.
Shortly before the blast, Indian police said they made several arrests and seized explosives during a raid. To this point, authorities have not indicated if there is a link between the car blast and those arrested in the raids—or named a specific militant group involved in either incident. The BBC reported that Indian authorities last week threw Nabi’s family out of their home in Kashmir and demolished it.
Indian officials also haven’t mentioned Pakistan in the wake of the blast, which contrasts with their reaction to a militant attack in Kashmir in April, when New Delhi was quick blame its neighbor and rival—without providing proof. In the wake of that incident, India staged military strikes in Pakistan.
India appears to be proceeding more cautiously with its messaging this time around, perhaps to avoid increasing domestic pressure for military retaliation. India struggled to maintain global backing during the conflict with Pakistan in May.
Under the Radar
When one thinks about the Trump family’s business abroad, they tend not to think of South Asia.
But in recent months, U.S. President Donald Trump’s sons have taken an interest in cryptocurrency opportunities in Pakistan, while the White House has latched on to critical mineral investment possibilities there. An investor with links to Trump’s family visited Bangladesh this year. And Trump’s family has extensive business interests in India.
The latest spot in South Asia to attract interest from the Trumps is the Maldives, where the Trump Organization announced this month that it would build a luxury resort in partnership with a Saudi real estate company. The resort, valued at $300 million, will be located a 25-minute speedboat ride from the capital, Malé, and is expected to open in 2028.
There is also a cryptocurrency angle: Investors will be able to buy digital shares in the venture during its early stages of development. The Maldives government has not commented about the investment, but it will surely welcome a splash in the tourism sector. The Maldives has lately experienced some of the most serious economic stress in South Asia.
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Regional Voices
In the Kathmandu Post, researcher Anurag Acharya laments changes to Nepal’s leftist political parties. “Nepal’s major communist parties, once known for their critical ideological debates and politics of dissent inside the parliament, have unfortunately been reduced to authoritarian enclaves captured by unretiring megalomaniacs,” he writes.
In the Print, journalist Karanjeet Kaur writes about the surge of hit-and-run incidents and road rage in India and its tragic impact on the public. “[T]he dead are almost always delivery workers, farmers, two-wheeler riders, pedestrians,” she writes. “Some lives are simply worth less than others. An Indian road is where that hierarchy finds final proof.”
A Prothom Alo editorial reacts to Hasina’s death sentence. “This verdict is undoubtedly a major lesson for Bangladesh’s government and political parties. Those who hold state power now or will in the future must remember that no one is above the law,” the editorial board argues.