What to Expect From Trump’s Meeting With MBS

When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday, several critical issues will be on the agenda, including a potential U.S.-Saudi defense pact and the Trump administration’s push for Riyadh to normalize ties with Israel.

The defense pact on the table is reportedly similar to the one that Trump agreed to with Qatar in September in which the United States committed to treat any attack on Qatar as a threat to U.S. security and to “take all lawful and appropriate measures — including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military — to defend the interests of the United States and of the State of Qatar and to restore peace and stability.” Importantly, that agreement was only an executive order, which, unlike a Senate-ratified treaty, carries basically no legal weight and can easily be undone by a future president.

If a U.S.-Saudi defense pact also consists of nothing stronger than an executive order, it will be little more than a symbolic gesture. Yet even a symbolic pledge to treat an attack on Saudi Arabia as a threat to the United States could face pushback from the “America First” wing of the Republican Party. Trump has already faced sharp criticism from some of his supporters for strengthening security cooperation with Qatar.

What could be of more substance is a deal to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. U.S. officials have reportedly raised concerns that such a deal would raise the risk of China gaining access to the advanced stealth plane’s technology, whether through espionage or Beijing’s deepening security cooperation with Riyadh. Israel, a top U.S. ally, is also the only country in the Middle East that currently possesses F-35s—and doesn’t want to see its military edge undermined. Still, recent reports indicate Trump is likely to reach a deal with the Saudi crown prince for the sale of the jets, though it’s unclear whether Congress might move to block it.

The White House declined to provide further details on the potential defense agreement or the F-35 deal when asked by Foreign Policy on Friday. Though the State Department generally oversees foreign military sales and offers final approval as part of an interagency process, the department referred Foreign Policy to the Pentagon when asked about the possible F-35 deal. The Pentagon referred Foreign Policy to the White House.

Saudi Arabia has also been pushing for U.S. help in developing a civilian nuclear program as well as increased access to advanced AI chips. Though the Trump administration has expressed excitement about aiding Saudi Arabia in the development of a nuclear energy program, concerns have also been raised about whether this would eventually open the door for the kingdom to develop a nuclear weapon. On the chips, similar to the potential F-35 deal, Riyadh’s relationship with Beijing has also raised concerns in Washington about advancing cooperation with the kingdom on AI.

On the U.S. side, Trump is expected to continue pressing Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, which have seen a number of Arab and Muslim-majority countries normalize ties with Israel.

But Riyadh has repeatedly stated that it will not join the accords until there is a clear path toward the creation of a Palestinian state. There are major hurdles to this, including the fact that the Israeli government is vehemently opposed to Palestinian statehood. Though it has been U.S. policy to support a two-state solution for decades, Trump has offered a murky stance on the issue, and other steps he’s taken as president have been criticized as undermining that goal. At the United Nations General Assembly in late September, for instance, Trump said that recognizing a Palestinian state rewards Hamas. When asked about a two-state solution in mid-October, Trump said, “We’ll have to see.”

But in what could be seen as an attempt to address Riyadh’s concerns over this issue, the United States last week submitted a revised draft resolution on Trump’s Gaza peace plan to the United Nations Security Council that includes a mention of a path to a Palestinian state. The language is still quite vague and comes with conditions, though, and is unlikely to go far enough for Riyadh to shift its stance. Trump’s willingness to sign off on new security agreements with Saudi Arabia may also be aimed at softening its position.

Tuesday’s White House visit will mark Mohammed bin Salman’s first trip to the United States since the brutal murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, and the trip is indicative of how the de facto Saudi ruler has been able to continue expanding his kingdom’s global influence despite such controversies.

U.S. intelligence determined that Mohammed bin Salman personally approved the operation that resulted in Khashoggi’s killing—an act that was condemned around the world and created a serious rift between Washington and Riyadh. But Saudi Arabia’s influence in the Gulf and vast oil reserves helped Mohammed bin Salman overcome that schism.

Former U.S. President Joe Biden came into office vowing to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah,” but ultimately ended up visiting the country and meeting with Mohammed bin Salman as he pushed for Riyadh to increase oil production amid shortages linked to the war in Ukraine.

Trump, who has never hidden his admiration for Mohammed bin Salman and has boasted about protecting the Saudi ruler from backlash over Khashoggi’s killing, has sought to strengthen ties between Washington and Riyadh for years. Trump visited Riyadh in May as part of the first foreign trip of his second term. “I like him a lot,” Trump said of Mohammed bin Salman during the visit. “I like him too much.” During that visit, Trump signed deals with Mohammed bin Salman worth $600 billion.